Fire Brad Childress carlosfusa on 14 Feb 2007 11:23 pm
Childress 4th Worst Play Caller in NFL
The 2006 ZEUS Critical Call Index (CCI) is an assessment of each NFL team’s performance in making optimal decisions on fourth downs, PATs and kickoffs. We refer to these types of play-calling decisions as “critical” because they often have a great effect on the outcome of a game.
Every critical decision for the 2006 regular season was evaluated by ZEUS™ (http://zeusfootball.com) for its impact on the team’s expected winning chances in that particular game. The errors were then summed for the entire 16-game season and the resulting total is the cumulative cost in seasonal win expectation in units of games per season. The lower the number, the better the team was at making critical calls.
ZEUS PLAY-CALLING RANKINGS
Rank Team Errors
1. Dallas Cowboys 0.41
2. Chicago Bears 0.49
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 0.50
4. New York Giants 0.57
5. Baltimore Ravens 0.59
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.60
7. Oakland Raiders 0.60
8. San Diego Chargers 0.62
9. Cincinnati Bengals 0.65
10. Green Bay Packers 0.67
11. New England Patriots 0.67
12. Carolina Panthers 0.69
13. Seattle Seahawks 0.70
14. Denver Broncos 0.70
15. New York Jets 0.72
16. Philadelphia Eagles 0.74
17. Arizona Cardinals 0.74
18. Atlanta Falcons 0.78
19. Kansas City Chiefs 0.79
20. Tennessee Titans 0.93
21. New Orleans Saints 0.97
22. Miami Dolphins 0.98
23. Houston Texans 0.99
24. Jacksonville Jaguars 0.99
25. Indianapolis Colts 1.02
26. St. Louis Rams 1.04
27. Detroit Lions 1.05
28. Buffalo Bills 1.07
29. Minnesota Vikings 1.09
30. Cleveland Browns 1.16
31. Washington Redskins 1.28
32. San Francisco 49ers 1.48
Here is an example of how ZEUS works.
Suppose a team is facing fourth-and-1 at midfield. The correct call between punting and running is the play that will provide the higher expectation of winning the game on average. ZEUS plays the game to completion (hundreds of thousands of times) from that point forward in a virtual environment and tabulates the statistical results. Score, time on the clock, ball location, down, yards to go, and strengths and weaknesses of the opposing teams are all accurately considered. If ZEUS suggests the run is 2 percent GWC (”Game Winning Chance” expectation) better than the punt, this means that under identical conditions the running play, on average, will net two more victories than the punt in every 100 games played. A 100 percent GWC is equivalent to one full game.
The optimum call does not provide a guaranteed result — no decision in football ever does. It simply identifies the best path to victory. Over the course of a long season critical call errors add up. The ZEUS CCI reveals just how much these preventable errors accumulate, and how much they can ultimately cost an NFL team.
